In a nutshell
- On forecast industry, Mark Carney’s chances of winning the forthcoming election are increasing.
- However, Pierre Poilievre, a favourite of Elon Musk and a Bitcoin fan, has a dwindling chance, thanks to conventional models and betting marketplaces.
- In the elections, Poilievre was well ahead of other candidates to become Canada’s future prime minister back in January.
Mark Carney, a Bitcoin writer and fan, is predicted to get Canada’s election later this month, based on both crypto betting markets and other forecast models.
On the prediction market MYRIAD, it was just earlier this month that 74 % of speculators had staked on Justin Trudeau, who succeeded him as prime minister in a party-run election on April 28.
However, Pierre Poilievre’s chances of becoming a Bitcoin-friendly republican have dropped while that possibility has now increased to over 82 %. ( Disclosure: Decrypt’s parent company, DASTAN, owns MYRIAD. )
On the crypto-prediction platform Polymarket, Carney has an 83 % chance, while Poilievre’s odds of winning are 17 %.  ,
s projection unit on Wednesday gave Carney’s Liberal Party an 86 % chance of winning if taken from a non-degen view.  ,
Since January, Elon Musk, the head of Tesla, has endorsed crypto-enthusiastic prospect Poilievre. He had an 89 % chance of winning the position at the time, according to Polymarket’s projection business.  ,
Right-winger Poilievre is no longer a favourite, though, month later, after the price of Bitcoin suffered a decline and President Trump returned to the White House.  ,
Carney appears to be in favor of challenging President Trump’s strong stance against him. He became a popular topic in the American election after suggesting that the country may become the 51st state.
Poilievre, who has similarly taken a bellicose approach to Trump but often has a politics comparable to that of the U.S. leader, may not be spewing much anti-MAGA rhetoric to pique Canadians ‘ love.  ,
Conventional Poilievre has long advocated for Bitcoin. He said again in 2022 that Canadians should be able to use other currencies like Bitcoin because of the government’s mismanagement of the Canadian dollar.
His remarks were made while American truckers were receiving Crypto donations while protesting nationwide vaccination mandates in the COVID-19 pandemic.  ,
Carney, who served as the governor of the Bank of England, has, on the other hand, discussed the need for a central bank digital money, or CBDC. Due to privacy concerns, many Bitcoiners have taken an anti-CBDC position.
In the past, Carney has criticised Bitcoin for its volatility and qualities as a store of value, most recently in 2018, when he addressed a Bank of England statement. He even criticized Bitcoin’s fixed-supply design for what he perceived as “grave shortcomings.”
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